Judea Pearl

"Haavelmo was the first to recognize the capacity of economic models to guide policies. This paper describes some of the barriers that Haavelmo’s ideas have had to overcome, and lays out a logical frame…"

", first encountered by Pearson in 1899 , refers to the phenomenon whereby an event C increases the probability of E in a given population p and, at the same time, decreases the probability of E in eve…"

"Traditional statistics is strong in devising ways of describing data and inferring distributional parameters from sample. Causal inference requires two additional ingredients: a science-friendly langu…"

"Mr. Holmes receives a telephone call from his neighbor Dr. Watson who states that he hears the sound of a burglar alarm from the direction of of Mr. Holmes' house. While preparing to rush home, Mr. Ho…"

"The research questions that motivate most quantitative studies in the health, social and behavioral sciences are not statistical but causal in nature. For example, what is the efficacy of a given drug…"

"When loops are present, the network is no longer singly connected and local propagation schemes will invariably run into trouble.. If we ignore the existence of loops and permit the nodes to continue …"

"a term coined in Pearl to emphasize three aspects: the subjective nature of the input information; the reliance on Bayes' conditioning as the basis of updating information; the distinction between cau…"

"A quantity Q is identifiable, given a set of assumptions A, iffor any two models M1 and M2 that satisfy A, we have"